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The 2008 Election represented one of the rare times in US history that neither of the two major parties had a candidate running for president that was not already either the President or Vice President. Because of that reason, the Democratic and Republican parties each held very impressive and widely followed campaigns.
But for the 2012 election, the Republican party will be the only party to have meaningful primaries because Barack Obama is all but a shoe-in to run for a second term in office.
So when the Republicans seek to choose a presidential nominee, they will have to measure his/her ability to beat Barack Obama in a general election. Obama was widely successful among young voters, new voters, and minorities. The Republicans will have to choose a candidate that can not only challenge Obama on that front but also drive in the base to the polls.
In the end, most political pundits feel that the 2012 election will basically be a job approval question for the Obama presidency. If he is deemed a successful president by the United States, he will win convincingly. If the voters decide that they did not get the change they wanted for the 2012 election, then they will likely look elsewhere for better options.
The likelist of candidates for the 2012 election at the present time would be Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Charlie Crist, Tim Pawlenty, and Bobby Jindal are also candidates that have been mentioned quite often as wild cards. Sarah Palin may be considered a Republican favorite but she is far from likeable on the whole national spectrum.
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